The other day I was visiting my local EB Games and conversing with a manager there that I’m friends with. I used to work at an EB store as a manager in the mid-1990s, and one thing I can tell you about working at EB- you get some good, real-time news. Their “daily memos” that print out when a manager logs onto the POS are filled with daily information about the games industry, most of it is so current that it doesn’t hit the online mags or web news sites for a week or two later. Its all confidential stuff, and I really do miss getting the daily, inside scoop on the games industry that I was once privy to. However, I still have some friends that work for the company, and we often chat about what’s going on in the industry. Most of these guys are hobbyists like we are, so they are game fans, just like us. One of the managers I know was talking to me about the state of the sports game industry after the “big deals” made by EA and Take Two. Being the football-centric fellow that I am, I immediately started talking about possible football games (without the NFL license) that I’d like to see made. He re-directed me back to the Take Two deal with Major League Baseball and the players, and that is where our talk got interesting….
Here's the discussion we had (posted from memory only.. don't assume its complete verbatim. I am paraphrasing from my own head!)
EB Manager: “Pretty big deal with the MLB, eh?”
Quietcool72: “Yeah, I suppose. Still, I don’t think it represents the kind of bling that the NFL deal does to EA.”
EB Manager: “Well, true- but it represents some key first-quarter cash that EA will be without for several years.”
Quietcool72: “I suppose so.”
EB Manager: “Think about their investor’s first quarter balance sheet. What other product do they have in the first quarter that generates the kind of money an MLB game rakes in? Pretty much nothing, other than the two “EA BIG” games, the not-very serious ‘Street’ ones. Those games do okay, but nothing like a major sim release. EA’s had repeat, big-business revenue in all quarters up to this point. Now Jan/March is going to be a problem for them starting in 2006- without baseball.”
Quietcool72: “I never thought of it that way, but you are correct.”
EB Manager: “Now- think about the amount of money EA has poured into re-vamping the once-lame “Triple-Play” series into the MVP series that many many people now buy. That investment will be dead after next month’s release of MVP 2005”
Quietcool72: “Yeah, that seems to be the case.”
EB Manager: “I contend that the MLB deal will hurt them more than if ESPN also had an NFL license. Madden has a commanding lead there anyway in terms of sales. But now EA has a soon-to-be dead product on their hands (MVP Baseball) that was very successful in a relatively “down” time of the gaming calendar.”
Quietcool72: “Okay- yeah, I can see that- but what can they do? About as much as Take Two can do about the NFL deal. Nothing.”
EB Manager: “They could sub-lease the rights they each have to one another. EA knows it will still dominate with the Madden fan base, but the extinction of their baseball franchise would really hurt, contrary to what they say. Take two will do well with the Baseball franchise they have, which has always done well, but needs the NFL license so their football series does not collapse. They could possibly “buy” sub leased rights from one another to share the contracts.”
Quietcool72: “That just seems so far-fetched.”
EB Manager: “Is it? You are thinking like a Pittsburgher who's bored with the Pirates' losing for the last 21 years. You don’t realize how big these baseball games are in some markets, and some BIG markets at that.. Take Two bought themselves one hell of a big bargaining chip, especially since very few products- other than baseball- generate big first quarter revenue.” Quietcool72: “Its an interesting notion though. We’ll see if something like that plays out.”
(END)
Now… keep in mind, this is speculation. However, it does pose an interesting possibility I hadn’t thought of before. We’ll see if my friend is any kind of sports game industry prophet as the year goes on, but I figured it’s a notion that would be good fodder for discussion in our forums.
See you on the virtual gridiron.. or the diamonds...or whatever... Quietcool72
Co Founder
Senior Writer
www.consolefootball.com
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